LuckyDog Quant System — Operator Console   strats × instruments

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Evaluation Progress

Profit Target: $6000
0.0% complete
Max Loss Used
0.0% · $2500 remaining
Consistency: 0.0% (need <50%)
Days: 0 · Wins: 0 · Avg: $0 · Est: days

Evaluation Tracker

Days Elapsed: 0 /
Cumulative P&L: $0 / $6000
Drawdown Used: $0 / $2500 limit
DLL Today: $0 / -$1000 limit
Best Day: $0 · 0% of total
Waiting for data...

ES — E-mini S&P 500

Price
Session
Last tick: · Age:
Contract: ESH26 · $50/pt
ORB: · Bars: 0/0
Opening Range
Waiting for session

🥇 MGC — Micro Gold

Price
Session
Last tick: · Age:
Contract: MGCJ26 · $10/pt
ORB: · Bars: 0/0
Opening Range
Waiting for session

CL — Crude Oil

Price
Session
Last tick: · Age:
Contract: CLM26 · $100/pt · 2ct (MCL)
ORTouch V3: · Bars: 0/0
Opening Range
Waiting for session

ZN — 10-Year T-Note

Price
Session
Last tick: · Age:
Contract: ZNH26 · $1000/pt · 1ct
ORTouch V3: · Bars: 0/0
Opening Range
Waiting for session

ES Price Chart — 1 Min

🥇 MGC Price Chart — 1 Min

MNQ Price Chart — 1 Min

MNQ Dead Cat — DRY RUN

Status: WATCHING (not trading)
Today’s gap: --
OR building: waiting
OR range: --
Would have: --
R:R achieved: --
Paper P&L: --
Signal: NO DATA
Validates code before enabling. Shows what the strategy WOULD have done without actually trading.

ORL BD Short — PAPER TRADE

Today’s Status
State:
PDR Percentile: (threshold: 20%)
Paper Trading Stats
Trades: 0
Win Rate:
Profit Factor: (expect: 1.57)
Total P&L:
Avg P&L: (expect: $142)
Streak: | Best: | Worst:
Decision Tracker
Status:
Deploy if PF > 1.2 on ≥10 trades | Reject if PF < 0.8
Trades remaining:
Phase 2 paper validation (Mar–Aug 2026). PDR≤20%, Aggressive entry at ORL, 1.0× OR stop, 3:1 R:R target, flatten 15:55.

RISK PROFILE & SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE

ES WAITING
Waiting for session
MGC WAITING
Waiting for session
CL WAITING
Waiting for session
ZN WAITING
Waiting for session
Session Timeline
Recent Results
Collecting data...
TopStep Progress
$0 / $6000 target  ·  0 days traded  ·  Today: $0  ·  Est: days remaining

Daily Timeline (ET)

S_PROD Portfolio — Strategy Lineup ( Active)

SlotStrategyInstDirCtExp PFStatus
Accumulation PullbackES1 DRY-RUN
es_bo_longES→MESLong40.80 ACTIVE
Conditional ORFES1 DRY-RUN
es_mr_longES→MESLong41.48 ACTIVE
OR Breakout Down Short LCESShort11.36 ACTIVE
OR Breakout Up Long LCESLong11.69 ACTIVE
Accumulation PullbackMGC1 DRY-RUN
F2 Long-Reversal cut1100MGC131.61 ACTIVE
mgc_gc_v2MGC14.00 ACTIVE
mnq_dc_shortMNQShort13.24 ACTIVE
zn_gc_v2ZN11.27 ACTIVE
. S3 sizing (ES 1ct). $1000 DLL active.
View MC run details & per-strategy specs →
D15 = Delay_15_1.0. 3C = 3-phase cascading trail.
Risk Score: 0.00 · Session:

System Health

System:
WebSocket:
Risk: normal
ES bars: 0/0
ES OR: pending

Open Positions

No open positions

Today's Trades

No trades today

Trade History

No trades recorded

EXECUTION LOG

Waiting for execution events...

GLOSSARY

TermDefinition
A / StepHalf OR width: (ORH-ORL)/2. Base unit for targets, stops, and extensions.
ATRAverage True Range. 20-day average of daily High−Low.
BOBreakout strategy — enter on vol-band trigger break.
3C3-phase cascade exit (original). P1: tight, P2: wide, P3: tightening trail.
D15Delay_15_1.0 exit. Hold 15 bars (75 min), then 1.0× OR-width trailing stop from HWM. Used on 8/11 strategies.
Double-BreakBoth ORH and ORL breached same day (~49% of days). Required for MR entry.
Entry CGap fade confirmation — wait for 25% gap fill before entering.
EODEnd of day flatten. ES 3:55 PM, MGC 1:20 PM.
Ext 1A/2A/3AExtensions above ORH: ORH + 1/2/3 × step.
Ext 1B/2B/3BExtensions below ORL: ORL - 1/2/3 × step.
F5Regime filter. Skip day when prior_day_range / 20d ATR < 0.65. Filters ~36% of days.
Gap FadeFade overnight gaps after Entry C confirmation. r=0.065 with ORB.
HWMHigh-Water Mark. Best price since entry, for trailing stops.
KVol-band coefficient. ES BO Long K=0.5, ES BO Short K=0.25. Trigger = open ± K×VSO×open.
MonitorWF-failed strategy running live at current sizing. Watching 2026 real-time performance to decide keep/drop.
LT / STLong/Short Trigger. Vol-band breakout entry levels.
MAEMax Adverse Excursion. Worst unrealized P&L during trade.
MCMonte Carlo simulation of eval pass probability.
MFEMax Favorable Excursion. Best unrealized P&L during trade.
MGCMicro Gold futures. $10/point.
DLLDaily Loss Limit. Config 5a: $1,000/day circuit breaker.
MLLMax Loss Limit. TopStep's $2.5K trailing drawdown (EOD).
MRMean Reversion. Fade double-break extensions. ES long-only.
OOSOut-of-Sample. IS=2008–2020, OOS=2021–2026.
OROpening Range. 30-min window defining ORH/ORL/width/VSO.
ORBOpening Range Breakout. Framework combining BO+MR.
ORH / ORLOpening Range High / Low.
PFProfit Factor. Gross profit / gross loss. >1.0 = profitable.
Q5Top 20% (fifth quintile). VSO Q5 skips wildest mornings.
Risk Score4-component z-score from prior day ES data.
RTHRegular Trading Hours. ES: 9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET.
Rule CRisk Score filter. |score|<0.5→skip BO, >3.5→directional only + skip MR.
S1-COvernight continuation. DISABLED — PF=0.93.
Dead CatMNQ Dead Cat Short. Gap-up ≥0.30% then OR Low breakdown. DRY-RUN.
ORTouchOR Level Touch. Afternoon mean-reversion at AM Opening Range levels. ES (13:00–14:30), MGC (10:00–12:00, V5 filter), MNQ (13:00–15:00), CL V3, ZN V3. All 5 LIVE.
GC (Gap Cont)Gap Continuation. Trades in direction of overnight gap with OR break confirmation.
SharpeMean return / std dev. >1 good, >2 excellent, >3 exceptional.
Soft/Hard StopSoft = checked on bar close. Hard = checked on bar H/L.
Vol-BandVolatility-normalized breakout triggers via VSO. Replaced static ORH/ORL.
VSOVolatility Since Open. sqrt(sum squared 1-min log returns) during OR.

SYSTEM HEALTH

Connection Status
System:
WebSocket:
Risk: normal
Data Feed
ES Bars (1m/5m): 0/0
ES OR Status: pending
ES Last Tick:
MGC Last Tick:
MNQ Last Tick:
CL Last Tick:
ZN Last Tick:
SI Last Tick:
HG Last Tick:
Config 5a — Strategy Enable State
ES ORB: ON    MGC ORB: ON    MNQ ORB: ON    Gap Fade: ON    ES GC: OFF    MGC GC: OFF    MGC GC V2: ON (gated, vol-only)    ZN GC V2: ON    CL DC: OFF    MNQ DC: ON (gated, vol-only)    ES ORT: ON    MGC ORT: ON    MNQ ORT: OFF    CL ORT: ON    ZN ORT: ON    SI ORT: ON (dry-run)    HG ORT: ON (dry-run)
Sizing: S3 (ES 1ct, MGC 2ct, CL 1ct, ZN 1ct, SI 1ct, HG 1ct)    DLL: $1,000    Risk Score: 0.00    Session:

STRATEGY HEALTH — DECAY MONITOR

Overall:   Last updated:
Live Trades
0
Green
0
Yellow
0
Warning
0
Critical
0

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE GUIDE

GREEN Above 25th percentile — performing within normal range
YELLOW Below 25th percentile — underperforming, watch closely
WARNING Below 10th percentile — likely degradation
CRITICAL Below 5th percentile or frequency <50% of expected — investigate immediately
NO DATA No live trades recorded yet
Minimum 20–30 trades per strategy recommended for statistical confidence. Assessments below this threshold are marked LOW confidence. Metrics are compared against 10,000-iteration bootstrap distributions from validated backtest results.

DIVERSIFICATION SCORE

Current (20-day rolling)
Baseline (2008-2025)
Mean |Correlation|
0.0 (uncorrelated) 0.00 1.0 (correlated)

CORRELATION STATUS

Overall
Live Days
0
Window
20d
Warnings
0
Critical
0

CORRELATION HEATMAP

Negative Zero Positive    Exceeds 95th pct

DIVERSIFICATION SCORE OVER TIME

1.0 = perfectly uncorrelated (ideal)  |  0.0 = perfectly correlated (worst)

ACTIVE ALERTS

No correlation alerts

CORRELATION MONITORING GUIDE

HEALTHY All pairs within normal ranges — diversification intact
WATCH 1-2 pairs exceeding 95th percentile — monitor closely
WARNING 3+ pairs exceeding 95th percentile — possible regime shift
CRITICAL Mean |correlation| > 0.4 or 3+ pairs spiking — diversification collapsing
Correlations are computed on a rolling 20-day window of daily P&L per strategy. Baselines were established from 2008–2025 backtest data using 60-day rolling windows. Structurally correlated pairs (mean > 0.3) are expected: ES_GF|MNQ_GF and MGC_GC|GC_GC.

LIVE vs BACKTEST PERFORMANCE

Total Live Trades
Total P&L (CSV)
Broker P&L
Overall Win Rate
Overall PF
Trading Days
Avg Trades/Day
Suspect Trades

STRATEGY COMPARISON

Strategy N Live WR Exp WR Live PF Exp PF PF Δ Avg Trade Total P&L Slippage Status

SLIPPAGE BY INSTRUMENT

Instrument Trades Avg Slippage Flag

CUMULATIVE P&L BY DAY

Date Daily P&L Cumulative
⚠ Data Quality Notes: Some trades may show $0 or -$1.24 P&L due to the exit direction mismatch bug (fixed Mar 6). Ghost trades from Feb 23 are filtered out. CL trades before Mar 9 2026 recorded P&L at 10× too low (point_value bug — used $50 ES instead of $500 QM, fixed Mar 9). Sample sizes are very small (system live since Feb 17 with frequent bugs) — do not draw conclusions from N < 10. Status column requires N ≥ 10 before evaluating performance.

COMMAND CONSOLE

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TRADE JOURNAL

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